Top trade idea for October 7th, 2016 – USD

The sell-off in bonds has been a key driver for market thinking this week. As investors position for higher US interest rates we have also s...

The sell-off in bonds has been a key driver for market thinking this week. As investors position for higher US interest rates we have also seen the US Dollar bought and gold sold. The 10 year note yield is at a key level heading into the Non-Farm Payroll support. Price is beginning to break below an established trend line and the 40 week (200 day moving average). This would be confirmed by a clear break below the early September lows. The slow stochastic in the box below this chart is still trending down and above the oversold zone suggesting plenty of scope for the current down trend to continue if support does break. The next major support looks to be down around 127.50 which implies a yield of about 2% compared to current levels of about 1.73%. This sort of level was last seen when the Fed made its first rate hike late last year. A move in yields like this is likely to be accompanied by further Dollar strength and gold weakness.

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