So weak has been the dollar this week that even the GBP/USD has managed to regain its poise. Clearly, traders are no longer expecting the US Federal Reserve to embark on an aggressive tightening cycle after the central bank had hinted in December at several more interest rate rises when it increased rates for the first time since 2006. Since December, concerns have increased over the US economic outlook while worries over China have also intensified. Added to this, the stock markets have plunged, further diminishing the wealth effect phenomenon that the Fed had hoped would boost growth. The renewed selling pressure in the oil market has further weakened the outlook for inflation. So, there is less urgency for the Fed to raise interest rates again, especially given the fact that the European Central Bank has turned even more dovish and after the Bank of Japan cut rates into the negative. But this view could change somewhat if this week’s key US macro pointers exceed expectations by a meaningful margin. Today’s ADP private sector payrolls report and the employment component of the ISM Services PMI should provide a good indication for the official jobs data on Friday.