Top trade idea for April 27th, 2016 – NZD/JPY
5:32:00 AMThe focus for much of the week has been on the FOMC statement, which is understandable given the lack of any clear trend for the dollar and especially for the EUR/USD pair. As it has turned out, the Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected but in a surprise move it has removed from its statement the reference to global risks, suggesting it is less concerned about economic and financial developments overseas. The initial reaction to the news was dollar positive but as we go to press, the USD has turned mixed. There will be two other major central banks that will also be making decisions on monetary policy in the coming hours: first the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and then the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Out of these central banks, the BOJ is the more likely candidate to loosen its policy. Speculation was rife at the end of last week that the BOJ may consider offering financial institutions a negative interest rate on some loans. Will this be enough or effective to push down the yen and underpin the Nikkei remains to be seen. Although the RBNZ is unlikely to make any changes to its policy after the surprise rate cut at its last meeting, it could nonetheless provide a bearish outlook on the New Zealand economy and hint at further interest rate cuts down the line. So, there is a possibility that the NZD could weaken. However that being said, the surprise rate cut last time only had a temporary influence on the NZD before the commodity currency surged higher.
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