Top trade idea for April 20th, 2016 – EUR/GBP
5:33:00 AMThe outcome of the European Central Bank’s latest policy decision is due on Thursday. Having just expanded QE at the last meeting in March, the ECB is unlikely to alter its policy further at this meeting. Investors will therefore focus on Mario Draghi’s comments, in particular for any hints on cutting the deposit rate further into negative territory in the future, something the ECB head had suggested would not happen. If there is a U-turn in this regard, then the euro could come under renewed pressure. In fact, the euro has already weakened in recent days, most notably against the pound which has rallied despite the on-going Brexit concerns. Today, the pound was able to hold its own relatively well even though the latest jobs data from the UK disappointed expectations. Here, unemployment rose for the first time in seven months, applications for jobless claims showed a surprise of 6,700 and the three-month average rise in wages including bonuses of 1.8% was below expectations. However, it wasn’t all doom and gloom as wages excluding bonuses rose by a better-than-expected 2.2% and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.1% as had been expected. The EUR/GBP nonetheless weakened. The cross will remain in focus for the remainder of this week because of the ECB’s meeting tomorrow and more economic data from both the UK and the Eurozone: UK retail sales are due tomorrow morning while the latest manufacturing PMI figures from the Eurozone are due for publication on Friday.
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